Our model gives Cuiabá a 51% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Athletic Club.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cuiabá have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Athletic Club have done so in 0 of their last 2.