Our model gives Crvena Zvezda a 56% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Viktoria Plzeň.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Crvena Zvezda have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Viktoria Plzeň have done so in 2 of their last 3.