Our model gives Crvena Zvezda a 74% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Čukarički.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Crvena Zvezda have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Čukarički have done so in 2 of their last 3.