Our model gives Crvena Zvezda a 85% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Novi Pazar.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Crvena Zvezda have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Novi Pazar have done so in 1 of their last 3.