Our model gives Crown Legacy a 37% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 40% for Connecticut United.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Crown Legacy have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Connecticut United have done so in 3 of their last 3.