Our model gives Crewe Alexandra a 48% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Shrewsbury Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Crewe Alexandra have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Shrewsbury Town have done so in 0 of their last 2.