Our model gives CRB a 52% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Sport Recife.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, CRB have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Sport Recife have done so in 1 of their last 3.