Our model gives Costa Brava a 63% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Sol de Mayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Costa Brava have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Sol de Mayo have done so in 3 of their last 4.