Our model gives Coritiba a 50% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Chapecoense.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Coritiba have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Chapecoense have done so in 2 of their last 4.