Our model gives Connecticut United a 52% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Orlando City II.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Connecticut United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Orlando City II have done so in 0 of their last 1.