Our model gives Connah's Quay a 49% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Caernarfon Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Connah's Quay have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Caernarfon Town have done so in 3 of their last 3.