Our model gives Comunal Cabrero a 46% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Naval.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Comunal Cabrero have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Naval have done so in 3 of their last 3.