Our model gives Columbus Crew a 55% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 23% for New England.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Columbus Crew have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and New England have done so in 2 of their last 3.