Our model gives Colegiales a 51% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Maipú.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Colegiales have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Deportivo Maipú have done so in 1 of their last 3.