Our model gives Colchester United a 42% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Rochdale.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Colchester United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Rochdale have done so in 2 of their last 3.