Our model gives Coimbra U20 a 82% chance to win this one, against 12% for a draw and 6% for Social.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Coimbra U20 have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Social have done so in 1 of their last 2.