Our model gives Club Brugge a 58% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Aston Villa.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Club Brugge have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Aston Villa have done so in 1 of their last 1.