Our model gives Cleethorpes Town a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Alfreton Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cleethorpes Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Alfreton Town have done so in 2 of their last 3.