Our model gives Claypole a 34% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 34% for Mercedes.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Claypole have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Mercedes have done so in 0 of their last 3.