Our model gives Clarence Zebras a 61% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 24% for Ulverstone.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Clarence Zebras have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Ulverstone have done so in 1 of their last 2.