Our model gives Ciudad de Bolívar a 39% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Defensores de Belgrano.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 30% likelihood against 70% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ciudad de Bolívar have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Defensores de Belgrano have done so in 1 of their last 4.