Our model gives Circulo Deportivo a 57% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 15% for Sol de Mayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Circulo Deportivo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Sol de Mayo have done so in 3 of their last 4.