Our model gives Circulo Deportivo a 55% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Guillermo Brown.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Circulo Deportivo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Guillermo Brown have done so in 0 of their last 3.