Our model gives Circulo Deportivo a 55% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 16% for Germinal de Rawson.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Circulo Deportivo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Germinal de Rawson have done so in 2 of their last 4.