Our model gives Cincinnati a 51% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 26% for New York City.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cincinnati have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and New York City have done so in 1 of their last 2.