Our model gives Cienciano a 58% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Cusco FC.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cienciano have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Cusco FC have done so in 3 of their last 4.