Our model gives Chornomorets a 31% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 40% for Polissya Zhytomyr.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chornomorets have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Polissya Zhytomyr have done so in 2 of their last 2.