Our model gives Chornomorets a 18% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 56% for Livyi Bereh.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chornomorets have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Livyi Bereh have done so in 0 of their last 2.