Our model gives Chichicasteco a 63% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Santa Lucia.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chichicasteco have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Santa Lucia have done so in 3 of their last 4.