Our model gives Chertanovo a 75% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Chita.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chita have done so in 1 of their last 1.