Our model gives Chernihiv a 19% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 57% for Polissya II.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chernihiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Polissya II have done so in 3 of their last 4.