Our model gives Chernihiv a 37% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Nyva Ternopil'.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chernihiv have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Nyva Ternopil' have done so in 0 of their last 2.