Our model gives Chemik Bydgoszcz a 42% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Kalisz.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chemik Bydgoszcz have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Kalisz have done so in 1 of their last 4.