Our model gives Chemie Leipzig a 22% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 57% for Carl Zeiss Jena.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chemie Leipzig have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 5, and Carl Zeiss Jena have done so in 3 of their last 5.