Our model gives Chelyabinsk a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 40% for Spartak Kostroma.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chelyabinsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Spartak Kostroma have done so in 2 of their last 3.