Our model gives Chayka a 45% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Neftyanik Ufa.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chayka have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Neftyanik Ufa have done so in 1 of their last 2.