Our model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 40% for Forward Madison.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chattanooga Red Wolves have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Forward Madison have done so in 3 of their last 5.