Our model gives Charlotte Independence a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Sarasota Paradise.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Charlotte Independence have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Sarasota Paradise have done so in 1 of their last 1.