Our model gives Charlotte Independence a 47% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 27% for One Knoxville.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Charlotte Independence have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and One Knoxville have done so in 2 of their last 3.