Our model gives Chapecoense a 34% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 38% for Vasco da Gama.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chapecoense have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Vasco da Gama have done so in 0 of their last 1.