Our model gives Chapecoense a 33% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 37% for São Paulo.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Chapecoense have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and São Paulo have done so in 1 of their last 3.