Our model gives Changwon City a 43% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Daejeon Korail.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Changwon City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Daejeon Korail have done so in 0 of their last 1.