Our model gives Changchun Xidu a 25% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 42% for Guangdong Mingtu.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 29% likelihood against 71% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Changchun Xidu have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Guangdong Mingtu have done so in 0 of their last 2.