Our model gives Changchun Xidu a 18% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 52% for Dalian Kewei.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Changchun Xidu have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Dalian Kewei have done so in 2 of their last 4.