Our model gives Cham a 42% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Brühl.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cham have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Brühl have done so in 2 of their last 3.