Our model gives Cham a 35% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 41% for Bellinzona.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cham have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Bellinzona have done so in 1 of their last 3.