Our model gives ÅCF a 24% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 56% for Mariehamn II.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, ÅCF have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Mariehamn II have done so in 2 of their last 2.