Our model gives Cerro a 19% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 52% for Racing.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cerro have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Racing have done so in 0 of their last 1.