Our model gives Cerro Porteño a 52% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Rubio Ñú.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cerro Porteño have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Rubio Ñú have done so in 2 of their last 3.