Our model gives Cerro Porteño a 33% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 39% for Palmeiras.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cerro Porteño have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Palmeiras have done so in 4 of their last 6.